June 2019 Portfolio Performance

Really quick update today as don’t have a huge amount of time, but wanted to get the Numbers recorded from Sharepad.

Overall a successful month with ISA +2.5%, SIPP +2.3%, However, poor compared to the TR from the benchmark Vanguard Lifestrategy which was at 3.34% – But overall I cannot be disapointed with the result as it’s still a decent return on a single month basis.

I do see this morning #HUR has had a setback on the Well program, so The shareprice has taken a beating – an opportunity to buy more perhaps for the SIPP to be investigated over next month.

Portfolio performance April 2019

So it’s time for the monthly recap against the market for both SIPP and ISA portfolios as recorded by Sharepad:

  • SIPP – overall performance +1.3%
  • ISA – overall performance + 1.8%

Overall performance in same benchmark fund (Vanguard Lifestrategy 80%) is +2.87% so again behind the benchmark annoyingly. As said in last months update I do have ~ 5 shares ex-dividend with payments due in May, so I do expect this to recover.

Yearly performance so far is SIPP 4%, ISA 8.7% – based on sharepad again. When compared at benchmark of 9.58%, I have someway to go, but again dividends are not paid yet… I’m reasonably happy with 4% at this stage of the year, and ecstatic about 8.7%… let us hope the performance continues throughout 2019!

Over the month, highest performance from non-benchmark fund was as below:

  • SIPP – PCOMKT – Merian UK Smaller Companies +6.03%
  • SIPP – BT.A -> BT Group Plc + 2.64%
  • ISA – ATST – Alliance Trust Plc +4.13%
  • ISA – AV – Aviva Plc – +3.15%

Detractors:

  • SIPP – DLG – Direct Line Group -7.45%
  • ISA – LLOY – Lloyds Bank -0.525% (tiny loss and dividend due).

Overall only 2 holdings in ISA lost money in April – great. Mears Group Plc also had another month of losses, so averaging down that purchase has made sense. DLG is targeted to top-up in the SIPP next month.

The SIPP portfolio has only really had > 0.5% losses from SSE, MER and DLG for the month, overall the funds have gained as a whole. As the shares in question are all actually in my top-ups already for last month as per my last post, it’s not unexpected. The losses are actually covered in DLG’s cases, by the dividend that is due in May, so I am not intending to drop this position.

I have also sold out of an under-performing fund this month in the SIPP – and converting to cash for later use. This will leave a ~2% cash holding in SIPP that will be increasing until I find a good trade to use on.

Portfolio Performance – March 2019

Overall “monthly” figures (from my sharepad tracker), taken on Sunday 31/3/19 as markets closed

  • SIPP : +2.2%
  • ISA : +1.7%

Given during the month the Vanguard Lifestrategy 60% we have as benchmark is +2.29%, so I am behind this “rolling” month by a small amount on both portfolios (I’d also add these figures include dividends!)

Lets see how we do next month – Given this is first time I’ve been tracking my portfolio this way, I should add my largest benefits/detractors :

  • SIPP – Largest growth : BP +4.78% – + a dividend payment making this higher.
  • SIPP – Largest detractor : WPCT -5.15% – overall portfolio is -0.4% on this now
  • ISA – Largest growth: BGJSB +4.09%
  • ISA – Largest detractor : LLOY -1.13% **

Given majority of shares in both portfolios have actually had gains, and we’re due Dividends on quite a few having already gone or are going to be going ex-divi over April, I expect growth over next 2 months to actually exceed the benchmark.

With the top up strategy discussed yesterday, I expect reinvestment to continue in the detractors going forward.

** Aviva was actually largest detractor, but we expect this from a new position in portfolio, and I haven’t lost as much as a long-term holder of a share – majority of losses are in stamp-duty and the trade fee – as is normal when entering a position.

Lets hope for a better result next month!

Mears Group Plc

As mentioned yesterday this was an investment added as a monthly short-mid term “feeder” investment for my SIPP last month, and will likely remain whilst the price remains attractive and below my max buy price, which would be circa 350p at present (Today this trades at 250p.

So why Mears, and not one of the other companies in sector (social housing repair/maintenance)? The shareprice has fallen heavily since the results & they have now hit the magical Yield figure to make me interested. The recent graph doesn’t look good though:

Graph courtesy of Sharepad.co.uk/Sharescope with their permission

The yield is a pleasant 4.8% with 2.3X cover, and the PE hasn’t been this low since ~1999. Also the annual report makes for reasonable reading and does explain the dip a little. Large shareholders (Primestone) have added funding only in November at £3.31 price, making my purchase at 260p seem very cheap – which has reassured I was not the only person seeing value here. Mears were on my target list prior to their results at this higher price level due to the previous years results being “acceptable”, . This dip probably did make me add them to the portfolio a few months ahead of planning. (I also had XP Power on the list to add this month, but they were near 20% up from when I had marked to purchase, so did not seem appropriate to add at this time from the 2 potential targets).

What I can’t dispute however, is the likely fact that caused this is the operating cash flow is at an all time low (lowest since 2014) – so I consider this given this a little bit of a punt over 12 months, however, this is a company that looks to have better figures than in 2012, but is currently trading at the same book valuation (despite the fact there is clearly a better forward order book (from the annual report). With the long procurement times in this sector, they fit my target list as a long-term likely gaining share with decent dividend prospects.

My prediction is for a recovery over the coming years, but I could be wrong, hence why I am funding this with 10% of net new “income” to the SIPP over the likely the next year, which will represent under a 4% net holding by end of year.

SIPP Portfolio March 2019

Future blogs will improve the style of this data “dump”, but attached below is the current full portfolio for March, along with cost/values in GBP. I have not included percentages, but my aim is for “fund” to eventually make up 50% of the below, with 50% being self selected shares. We are currently far higher percentage wise on “funds” however at current market values. 25% of the fund should remain as a passive investment with Vanguard Lifestrategy 60 as the bedrock, and “target” to beat for the rest of the SIPP.

Every month £1000 is added to the portfolio, with it being split in last month into the shares marked in italics below with £100 going to each option – which shares get added to do change monthly to rebalance – typically the “less” profitable shares get the topups. I am using interactive investors “regular” trade option to pound cost average down the trades, so trading fees are £1, and stamp duty where effective is 50p. This compares identically to a real time trade of £10 of £1000.

Share/FundOriginal CostCurrent P&L
Vanguard LifeStrategy 60% ACC5249.95311.58
BP3545.53416.60
Capital Gearing Trust2228.251.95
Direct Line952.47-5.42
Fidelity China Special Situations39621.36
Funding Circle SME Income299.14-47.09
Fundsmith Equity T Acc574.9939.80
Milton European Opportunities B ACC900.0116.10
Lindsell Train Japanese Equity B Sterling Hedged2002.55
Mears Group98.07-3.39
Merian UK Smaller Companies Fund R ACC60020.11
Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust Plc985.88-40.91
Smithson Investment Trust Plc365.8613.24
SSE Plc1299.7720.72
Threadneedle European High Yield Bond 3G550-11.19
Woodford Patient Capital Trust Plc
1147.86-42.52
Baillie Gifford Japanese Smaller Co B ACC899.75-14.15
BT843.847.07

Total Profit over last 12 months: ~707.91 GBP (above was from real-time data so may be slightly out!). Not bad for what was a bad year overall for the markets and given ~ 10k of the funding was drip fed over the year it is no wonder that the returns are lower than the top 3 investments, which were bulk purchased at the start.

The return to beat is the Vanguard LifeStrategy piece is the 60% – which returned ~5.9% the previous year as a whole. Given the total portfolio was funded initially mostly on this – as a whole the portfolio has under performed this. However, this excludes for most part any Dividend in past 12 months, making the BP Figures in particular very out. BP comfortably outperformed LifeStrategy, and generated double the return from a smaller investment overall when this is taken into account. As this was my largest “pick” of all the shares outside of the Fund list, this firms up my strategy of picking under priced shares, and holding, and reinvesting Dividends.

The “new” share added this month to the Portfolio is Mears group, following what the market saw as disappointing results. I however found this to be a company that has a high potential for recovery in future, with a potential upside of 30-40% + dividend over next 2 years. I will do a seperate post on the indicators that lead to this conclusion. But I will be adding to this holding over next few months unless the market does recover by 30-40%. This was in my Targets list previously from a search, so I know the fundamentals looked reasonable for this option.

Next month I plan do not plan to add any new share, and likely will not change the distribution in the short term, unless market conditions change. I appreciate I will need to keep re-adding funds back to Vanguard in a few months, as this is dropping below my 25% target for this holding. Changes from last month include re-adding Woodford Patient Capital to monthly top ups following the Woodford Equity reshuffle at a premium (they paid 95p). Given this currently is a 15% discount to NAV, thats month I’m (hopefully) locking in for later. Also have put BT back to the “purchase” list, as both have had recent falls in value – similar reasons.

Overall there are likely too many funds/shares in the portfolio right now, however, it is being 20% weighted with new funds to Japan ahead of Brexit, as I suspect Japan will benefit greatly if the UK economy takes a nosedive. Lindsell Train Japan is also mainly because of their 10% Nintendo holding – I sense this will be a winner, and I can’t easily “drip” feed into the Japanese markets without using a fund. As a gamer don’t bet against Mario, Nintendo and Zelda, as I see Mario and Zelda as a moat that other gaming firms dream of holding.

As a whole the portfolio is also considerably underweight ref: Asian equities, and I need to find a fund for Asia/Australian assets as soon as reasonably possible.

After I have filled that gap – I suspect the next decision are on other “shares” to rebalance to 50% directly held shares. At moment that percentage is ~40% so I have a way to go on that. I also will be too highly weighted to WPCT soon, so will need to switch to another option – however I still feel that I should invest when the fund is trading below my “value” figure.

I’m still unsure about SSE as a longer term holding – but thats a blog for another day.